ABSTRACT
Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the risk spillover effect between the exchange rate of importing and exporting oil countries and the oil price. The analysis is supported by the utilization of a set of double-long memories. Thereafter, a multivariate GARCH type model is adopted to analyze the dynamic conditional correlations. Moreover, the Gumbel copula is employed to define the nonlinear structure of dependence and to evaluate the optimal portfolio. The conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) is adopted as a risk measure. Findings indicate a long-run dependence and asymmetry of bidirectional risk spillover among oil price and exchange rate and confirm that the risk spillover intensity is different between the former and the latter. They show that the oil price has a stronger spillover effect in the case of oil exporting countries and the lowest spillover effect in the case of oil importing countries.
ABSTRACT
Reflecting the level of welfare of the fishers and fish farmers, terms of trade index (namely NTN/NTP) is believed to have decreased as the result of the Covid 19 outbreak. And, recognizing the important role of fisheries in the economy, understanding what have occured to the index is relevant. This paper aimed to: (i) analyze the impact of the outbreak on NTN/NTPi and (ii) identify what changes in variables have significant contribution to the NTN/NTPi decrease. The analytical method used is descriptive quantitative. The primary data consisted of: (i) fisher and fish farmer terms of trade as published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, (ii) variables that compose the price index received by fishermen / fish farmers and the index of prices paid by fishermen / fish farmers. The results showed that the decline in NTN and NTP occurred in all provinces in Indonesia. For fishers and fish farmers, variables of received price index that had the most significant effect on the decline is basic need cost such as food, drinks, cloth and transportation while variables of paid price index that had the most significant effect on the decline is capital goods.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on the economic sector, including the agricultural sector. This research will look at the agricultural sector's condition, especially the welfare of farmers represented in the value of the Framers' Term of Trade (FTT) during the COVID-19 pandemic and will forecast FTT for September 2020. This research uses Farmers' Term of Trade (FTT) data obtained from the Indonesian Statistics Bureau (BPS). FTT data were used from January 2016 to August 2020. The Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), used to forecast the FTT value in September 2020, and the determination of the most optimal forecasting value used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the TFF value, recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced a drastic decline in May 2020 with a TFF value of 99.46. The forecasting calculations using the SES and MAPE methods showed that the most optimal FTT value for September 2020 was 100.63, with a MAPE value of 19.97 percent.
ABSTRACT
The 1991 Indian reforms aimed at economic liberalization, as a part of its economic structural adjustment, and transformed the nation's economy into a more global market-based and service-oriented system, which revolutionized its agricultural trade facet. The new regime paved the way for the self-reliant Indian agriculture to expand its roots into the spheres of global competitiveness and export orientation. India enjoys competitive advantage in the international market and considering the growth in India's exports of major agricultural commodities. This study employed Constant Market Share model to analyze the export performance of its various facets such as diversification, instability, elasticity, competitiveness, etc. The findings revealed that India's growth performance of major agricultural commodities' exports both in terms of quantity and value was found satisfactory (except wheat and cashew nuts, shelled (quantity)) during 1991-2020. During the recent past decade, i.e., 2011-2020, World Demand Effect (WDE) is the main sources of India's agricultural export performance (due to general rise/fall in world demand given a constant market share of the India, unlike Market Distribution Effect (MDE), Commodity Composition Effect (CCE) and the Residual Competitiveness Effect (RCE) due to high inconsistency arising out of changes in external environment). Both MDE and RCE with respect to commodity-wise exports and CCE and RCE with respect to country-wise exports are found negative for majority of commodities and countries (markets) respectively. Consistently negative CCE for exports of agricultural products, total and across major export destinations were found more disheartening and this should deserve special attention. So, it is imperative to boost the export competitiveness of agricultural commodities from India and the future prospects of exports depend on how much the latest surge in COVID-19 infections in India affects its agricultural production and global demand conditions.
ABSTRACT
During the COVID-19, the agro-industrial sector continues to prove a significant role in the contribution of Vietnamese economic power. It is essential to be aware of the performance-competition relationship which helps agro-process enterprises improve their business and respond quickly to market changes. We implemented an input-output-performance analysis by employing a qualitative case-study approach at four large manufacturing exporters by adapting the iceberg model and 'philosophy' of technovation performance. As a result, we found that the input-output process of technovation occurs mutually from the export competitive advantages in both direct and indirect ways. Moreover, by assigning four cases to one of four concordant positions, the matrix of technovation performance-competitiveness as an analytical tool was established, helping managers allocate resources and capital to select and build their own business strategy. The implications for theory and managerial practices are explained and presented.
ABSTRACT
As a wheat exporter, Russia ranks first in the world. Almost half of domestic wheat production is exported due to its competitiveness characterized by the relatively high level of comparative advantage. According to the study in the context of export parity and significant export volumes, domestic wheat prices follow world market prices and largely depend on major importers' demand. Global wheat prices have been rising consistently over the past months caused by the recovery in Chinese economy, adverse weather conditions, disruptions in food value chains and liquidity injections in the USA and EU economies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To restrain the rise in domestic prices, Russian government decided to introduced a floating export duty on wheat. This mechanism in the context of high world grain prices, economic stagnation, shrinking disposable incomes and increased risks of further devaluation of the national currency would lead to deterioration of the financial and economic situation, reduction of investment opportunities and technological lagging of Russian wheat producers behind their competitors in the world market. In this respect, Russian government efforts should be focused on increasing production and improving the competitiveness of wheat instead of restricting exports. A comprehensive set of measures regulating the wheat market also implies subsidizing wheat consumers, support for the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, and targeted assistance to vulnerable groups of the population. Such approaches would support grain consumers while respecting the interests of producers and exporters, thereby helping to achieve the national agri-food export target of USD 45 billion in the coming ten years.
ABSTRACT
Resulting from the incessant political and economic uncertainty that bedevils the EAC region in the recent past, the various governments have used monetary policy changes in response to shocks from macroeconomic variables. However, the available literature shows a non-agreement by scholars as far as the dynamics in monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic activity connections are concerned, for both country-by-country analyses and regional assessments. This article widens the frontiers of knowledge about how the dynamics of monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic performance interact within the EAC economic region. We adopted the S-VAR method because of its contemporary nature as far as a transmission of monetary policy approach is concerned. The interconnectivity among the countries of EAC is an indication that any shock to the price of commodities (non-oil commodities) has significant implication on the exchange rate, which will be channelled through the supply of money and monetary policy to the GDP. The need to diversify the productive and export base of member countries, compared to the continuous dependence on one or a few products as the major source of income, is hereby advocated.
ABSTRACT
Regional Market Integrations (RMIs) are becoming increasingly popular globally, especially in Asia. RMIs have many advantages for the participants. However, RMIs improve inter-country dependency and are vulnerable to external shocks. The Covid-19 pandemic is now disrupting human life, including agricultural trade between countries. This situation encouraged us to compare RMIs' positive impact with Covid-19's negative impact. This study investigates the impact of RMI and Covid-19 pandemic on SEA's agricultural trade and measures its competitiveness corresponding to them. The sample of this study is the SEA region which is among the world's highest-growing RMIs. The researchers employed secondary data derived from ASEANStats for 2012-2020 periods on HS01-HS24 commodities. General short-term export-import patterns, Revealed Comparative Advantage, and Trade Specialization Index were used to denote trade performance. The researchers present evidence that the ASEAN Economic Community, which represents RMIs, generally increases agricultural commodity trading patterns and competitiveness. However, the benefits generated by the RMI were undermined by the Covid-19 pandemic which had a tremendous impact on the trade performance of ASEAN countries. In order to accelerate RMI and ease the negative impact of Covid-19, the researchers recommend three strategies in the form of capacity building, technology implementation, and improvement of the market situation.